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Abstract Earthquakes are rupture-like processes that propagate along tectonic faults and cause seismic waves. The propagation speed and final area of the rupture, which determine an earthquake’s potential impact, are directly related to the nature and quantity of the energy dissipation involved in the rupture process. Here, we present the challenges associated with defining and measuring the energy dissipation in laboratory and natural earthquakes across many scales. We discuss the importance and implications of distinguishing between energy dissipation that occurs close to and far behind the rupture tip, and we identify open scientific questions related to a consistent modeling framework for earthquake physics that extends beyond classical Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics. 

Abstract Numerical simulations of Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS) have rapidly progressed to address fundamental problems in fault mechanics and provide self‐consistent, physics‐based frameworks to interpret and predict geophysical observations across spatial and temporal scales. To advance SEAS simulations with rigor and reproducibility, we pursue community efforts to verify numerical codes in an expanding suite of benchmarks. Here we present code comparison results from a new set of quasi‐dynamic benchmark problems BP6‐QD‐A/S/C that consider an aseismic slip transient induced by changes in pore fluid pressure consistent with fluid injection and diffusion in fault models with different treatments of fault friction. Ten modeling groups participated in problems BP6‐QD‐A and BP6‐QD‐S considering rate‐and‐state fault models using the aging (‐A) and slip (‐S) law formulations for frictional state evolution, respectively, allowing us to better understand how various computational factors across codes affect the simulated evolution of pore pressure and aseismic slip. Comparisons of problems using the aging versus slip law, and a constant friction coefficient (‐C), illustrate how aseismic slip models can differ in the timing and amount of slip achieved with different treatments of fault friction given the same perturbations in pore fluid pressure. We achieve excellent quantitative agreement across participating codes, with further agreement attained by ensuring sufficiently fine time‐stepping and consistent treatment of boundary conditions. Our benchmark efforts offer a community‐based example to reveal sensitivities of numerical modeling results, which is essential for advancing multi‐physics SEAS models to better understand and construct reliable predictive models of fault dynamics. 

Tsunami wave observations far from the coast remain challenging due tothe logistics and cost of deploying and operating offshoreinstrumentation on a long-term basis with sufficient spatial coverageand density. Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) on submarine fiber opticcables now enables real-time seafloor strain observations over distancesexceeding 100 km at a relatively low cost. Here, we evaluate thepotential contribution of DAS to tsunami warning by assessingtheoretically the sensitivity required by a DAS instrument to recordtsunami waves. Our analysis includes signals due to two effects induced by thehydrostatic pressure perturbations arising from tsunami waves: thePoisson’s effect of the submarine cable and the compliance effect of theseafloor. It also includes the effect of seafloor shear stresses andtemperature transients induced by the horizontal fluid flow associatedwith tsunami waves. The analysis is supported by fully coupled 3-Dphysics-based simulations of earthquake rupture, seismo-acoustic wavesand tsunami wave propagation. The strains from seismo-acoustic waves andstatic deformation near the earthquake source are orders of magnitudelarger than the tsunami strain signal. We illustrate a data processingprocedure to discern the tsunami signal. With enhanced low-frequencysensitivity on DAS interrogators (strain sensitivity ≈2×10 at mHz frequencies), we find that, on seafloorcables located above or near the earthquake source area, tsunamis areexpected to be observable with a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio withina few minutes of the earthquake onset. These encouraging results pavethe way towards faster tsunami warning enabled by seafloor DAS. 

ABSTRACT Frictional heating during earthquake rupture raises the fault-zone fluid pressure, which affects dynamic rupture and seismic radiation. Here, we investigate two key parameters governing thermal pressurization of pore fluids – hydraulic diffusivity and shear-zone half-width – and their effects on earthquake rupture dynamics, kinematic source properties, and ground motions. We conduct 3D strike-slip dynamic rupture simulations assuming a rate-and-state dependent friction law with strong velocity weakening coupled to thermal-pressurization of pore fluids. Dynamic rupture evolution and ground shaking are densely evaluated across the fault and Earth’s surface to analyze the variations of rupture parameters (slip, peak slip rate, rupture speed, and rise time), correlations among rupture parameters, and variability of peak ground velocity. Our simulations reveal how variations in thermal-pressurization affect earthquake rupture properties. We find that the mean slip and rise time decrease with increasing hydraulic diffusivity, whereas mean rupture speed and peak slip-rate remain almost constant. Mean slip, peak slip-rate, and rupture speed decrease with increasing shear-zone half-width, whereas mean rise time increases. Shear-zone half-width distinctly affects the correlation between rupture parameters, especially for parameter pairs (slip, rupture speed), (peak slip-rate, rupture speed), and (rupture speed, rise time). Hydraulic diffusivity has negligible effects on these correlations. Variations in shear-zone half-width primarily impact rupture speed, which then may affect other rupture parameters. We find a negative correlation between slip and peak slip-rate, unlike simpler dynamic rupture models. Mean peak ground velocities decrease faster with increasing shear-zone half-width than with increasing hydraulic diffusivity, whereas ground-motion variability is similarly affected by both the parameters. Our results show that shear-zone half-width affects rupture dynamics, kinematic rupture properties, and ground shaking more strongly than hydraulic diffusivity. We interpret the importance of shear-zone half-width based on the characteristic time of diffusion. Our findings may inform pseudodynamic rupture generators and guide future studies on how to account for thermal-pressurization effects. 

ABSTRACT Numerical modeling of earthquake dynamics and derived insight for seismic hazard relies on credible, reproducible model results. The sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) initiative has set out to facilitate community code comparisons, and verify and advance the next generation of physics-based earthquake models that reproduce all phases of the seismic cycle. With the goal of advancing SEAS models to robustly incorporate physical and geometrical complexities, here we present code comparison results from two new benchmark problems: BP1-FD considers full elastodynamic effects, and BP3-QD considers dipping fault geometries. Seven and eight modeling groups participated in BP1-FD and BP3-QD, respectively, allowing us to explore these physical ingredients across multiple codes and better understand associated numerical considerations. With new comparison metrics, we find that numerical resolution and computational domain size are critical parameters to obtain matching results. Codes for BP1-FD implement different criteria for switching between quasi-static and dynamic solvers, which require tuning to obtain matching results. In BP3-QD, proper remote boundary conditions consistent with specified rigid body translation are required to obtain matching surface displacements. With these numerical and mathematical issues resolved, we obtain excellent quantitative agreements among codes in earthquake interevent times, event moments, and coseismic slip, with reasonable agreements made in peak slip rates and rupture arrival time. We find that including full inertial effects generates events with larger slip rates and rupture speeds compared to the quasi-dynamic counterpart. For BP3-QD, both dip angle and sense of motion (thrust versus normal faulting) alter ground motion on the hanging and foot walls, and influence event patterns, with some sequences exhibiting similar-size characteristic earthquakes, and others exhibiting different-size events. These findings underscore the importance of considering full elastodynamics and nonvertical dip angles in SEAS models, as both influence short- and long-term earthquake behavior and are relevant to seismic hazard. 

Abstract While the notion that injecting fluids into the subsurface can reactivate faults by reducing frictional resistance is well established, the ensuing evolution of the slip is still poorly understood. What controls whether the induced slip remains stable and confined to the fluid‐affected zone or accelerates into a runaway earthquake? Are there observable indicators of the propensity to earthquakes before they happen? Here, we investigate these questions by modeling a unique fluid‐injection experiment on a natural fault with laboratory‐derived friction laws. We show that a range of fault models with diverging stability with sustained injection reproduce the slip measured during pressurization. Upon depressurization, however, the most unstable scenario departs from the observations, suggesting that the fault is relatively stable. The models could be further distinguished with optimized depressurization tests or spatially distributed monitoring. Our findings indicate that avoiding injection near low‐residual‐friction faults and depressurizing during slip acceleration could help prevent large‐scale earthquakes. 

Abstract Dynamic modeling of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) provides a self‐consistent, physics‐based framework to connect, interpret, and predict diverse geophysical observations across spatial and temporal scales. Amid growing applications of SEAS models, numerical code verification is essential to ensure reliable simulation results but is often infeasible due to the lack of analytical solutions. Here, we develop two benchmarks for three‐dimensional (3D) SEAS problems to compare and verify numerical codes based on boundary‐element, finite‐element, and finite‐difference methods, in a community initiative. Our benchmarks consider a planar vertical strike‐slip fault obeying a rate‐ and state‐dependent friction law, in a 3D homogeneous, linear elastic whole‐space or half‐space, where spontaneous earthquakes and slow slip arise due to tectonic‐like loading. We use a suite of quasi‐dynamic simulations from 10 modeling groups to assess the agreement during all phases of multiple seismic cycles. We find excellent quantitative agreement among simulated outputs for sufficiently large model domains and small grid spacings. However, discrepancies in rupture fronts of the initial event are influenced by the free surface and various computational factors. The recurrence intervals and nucleation phase of later earthquakes are particularly sensitive to numerical resolution and domain‐size‐dependent loading. Despite such variability, key properties of individual earthquakes, including rupture style, duration, total slip, peak slip rate, and stress drop, are comparable among even marginally resolved simulations. Our benchmark efforts offer a community‐based example to improve numerical simulations and reveal sensitivities of model observables, which are important for advancing SEAS models to better understand earthquake system dynamics.